I’ve been too busy, and the game weeks have been coming too quickly for me to update these lately, but I have been thinking about it and have modified the formula slightly.
Tough week. 5 correct results, but just one that was a single goal away, although it was only one goal away for the Bournemouth game, too. Always unlikely to do well when there are 6 goals in one game, 5 in another, and Everton score 4!
5 correct results this week, with 1 correct score in the opening game. When we think as well that Palace got a last minute goal, that would have been another spot-on score.
Of the remaining 4 games, Watford showed their away metal again, Burnley winning was very unlikely, Spurs couldn’t get past WBA, and Southampton remembered how to score again.
7 correct results for the model, with 3 of those being just one goal away from being perfect. It was also only one goal out (despite being wrong) on the Brighton game too. I feel like it’s getting closer now that the sample size is growing, but of course there are still imperfections where teams like Bournemouth and Palace had such terrible starts, and in the reverse case, where Huddersfield are now falling away, form wise.
An interesting week of scores – another couple of surprises with Bournemouth finally picking up a win, and away from home no less, and Everton pulling off a late comeback out of nowhere. On a positive note, the model had 6/20 individual team scores right, and was only one goal away from being spot on in 5 of the other games.
A better week in GW10 – the model predicted 7 correct results, with one of them (Brighton 1-1 Saints) being the exact score. In terms of goal difference it was within 2 goals in 7/10 games, with two of the games outside that margin coming at Old Trafford (was never going to be high scoring), and at Watford where we saw a surprise Stoke win and clean sheet.
Another week where the model struggled, but faith will not be lost this quickly! Brighton winning 3-0 away? Huddersfield beating Utd? Bournemouth winning away? 7 goals at Goodison? Tough ask for any model to call those scores.