I’ve spent a lot of this week deliberating over a potential wildcard, despite never really wanting to play it for the reasons mentioned in the GW3 review. There are definitely enough players in my team I would change if I hit the button, but who to change them to is another matter.
The various transfers and non-transfers yesterday steadied my hand, however, and I’ll definitely not be hitting the button just yet. There are so many questions still to be answered on players that I may want to bring in. Will Bony become a viable third choice striker? Will Aurier be first choice ahead of Tripper? Will Krul be a starting 4m GK? They may not all be clear by the next IB, but the picture should be a lot clearer.
Despite the early expectations from a lot of managers that there would be multiple player rises during the International break, so far this has not materialised. The markets have slowed considerably, and is most likely a combination of the variance changes to the algorithm, and some wildcards being played.
There have been only 7 players to rise so far this week, and no double risers. While of the 51 players to fall 0.1, there are only 4 (De Bruyne, Coutinho, Ritchie and Fraser) that are of any interest, FPL wise.
I think it’s important to keep track of my players’ potential change in value, and would recommend all FPL managers to do the same. Here’s the current status of my team:
From the first glance the amount of red on here looks pretty concerning, but as the prices are moving slowly some context is required. Firstly, you only need to worry when players are nearing the -100% mark (so immediately you can ignore Bertrand, Eriksen, Phillips etc.), and secondly you need to consider the speed at which they are moving towards it.
For example, I saw Dann as a big problem – my plan was always to keep him for another week but when I looked on Wednesday he was -98.1. Very close. However two days later and he’s still at -97.5. I’m taking a chance on him not dropping – and if he does I’ll just take it on the chin – but this is an example of not looking at the price change predictor sites and immediately panicking.
I’ll wait as late as possible, ideally after all international games are complete, but my current plan is to take a -4 to remove Walker & Ward-Prowse, and replace them with Naughton & Salah.
Swansea’s fixture look excellent and Naughton has made a good start to the season, accruing 19 points already, so I want to get on that, and bringing in Salah shouldn’t need any explaining. Walker was always a potential downgrade waiting to happen, which is how it’s worked out, while JWP was a bad choice from the off and I’ll be glad to be rid.
Let me know if you disagree with any of the above thinking or if you’d do it differently?